Nice thought and analysis but what if there is a black swan, something no one thought could happen?
"we have depleted every resource" ... Maybe we haven't even touched the most important one. Then again, when you solve problems, that just tends to reveal others. If you had limitless energy, then it reveals other problems like pollution and over population. For that matter, I suspect that you have missed the worst problem we face.
If you want a solution, maybe re-phrasing the problem would help some. What is civilization? I've been trying to solve the problem you pose for about 50 years now and I take a very different view than you do. Please humor me and see if this is a black swan. I don't think you have ever considered how I look at this.
What is a civilization? It is an ecology, a life support system for humans that we have been developing ever since we left the hunter gatherer tribal ecology for the farms and cities of civilization. Calling civilization and ecology seems odd but it describes the resource and social strategies just the same as hunter gatherer tribal does and that is what ecology is all about. It is a biological description of the energetic and reproductive strategies of a species. Looking at it that way can be quite revealing. So what I've worked to do is describe how humans can genetically and strategically adapt to this new ecology, civilization, based on our resources, habits and instincts. Your item 22. Unsustainable behavior trumps sustainability - is a critical point here. The biologist E. O. Wilson pointed out this problem in biological terms - humans are not evolved to think in long terms. So many people have asked "when will humans grow up". If we did that, provided intent, a goal, I suspect that most of the other issues you list could be managed by achieving the goal of long term survival, if we had the resources we need. It's a question of how can we get humans to set a long term goal of survival. I believe these problems can be solved but unsurprisingly it's not a straight line to how. It starts with disease.
We all know that Covid was expected, it's the way of diseases. It was actually expected to be a flu because they are more common but we've always known that we were going to get continually hit by novel diseases and some were going to be bad. Some are going to be worse. In about 1973 my high school biology teacher said that there are tropical diseases we never encounter and know nothing about. That sounds like covid to me, but it sent me on a quest of over 50 years to describe how humanity could survive long term, again, by genetic and strategic adaptation. May I offer you a little about what I found...
Our biggest problem might well be overshoot, but you might just call that evolutionary drives, expressed as instincts and circumstance. Also, there might be a closer problem that relates to that in an unexpected way. You look at many problems but we face a different problem that no one seems to have looked at, related to "those diseases". It is an existential threat and offers a path to the future. When I looked at diseases, as my teacher mentioned, the obvious question I saw was what will be the outcome of the widespread use of vaccines? It's a pretty big effect in terms of natural selection and personnel survival. I concluded that like most things we call human progress, it was a reduction in natural selection. What would be the outcome of that? Well, basic biology says that a dangerous genetic load of broken genes would accumulate. Using that as a starting point I worked to figure out how to economically and ethically replace the natural selective effects we have removed with human directed artificial selection. Natural selection is blunt, stupid instrument. Human intelligence could husband our genes to remove the broken genes. It could also be used to preserve the best genes of both parents. Natural selection cannot do that. It cannot be just for the wealthy because everyone would need it. There is no greater wealth than genes.
The second problem, your #22, sustainability could be changed here too. There is one time humans think about the future carefully. That is when a woman is pregnant or thinking about it. She thinks about the future. If you gave her a simple economical way to enhance the future for her children, she would. That could be a powerful thing. Humans might then get in the habit of working for a better future.
That's my story and I'm sticking with it. Check it out because you say you have nothing better and it is a black swan as far as you are concerned, something you never thought of. It is anchored deep in science and reason. If you want to know a practical... ethical and economical... path to how humans can husband their genes, just check out Genetics For A New Human Ecology. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjVieFKevMk . An updated book about it is available at https://www.amazon.com/dp/1544900996. I am working on re-writing the book on strategy. There is a path.
